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31.
新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
依托国家重点基础研究(973)计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究",中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位,通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层(特别是海气相互作用)物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究,建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统,并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术,在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。 相似文献
32.
基于Landsat遥感影像,建立1988年、2000年和2015年3个时期马六甲海峡两侧的岸线数据,并从岸线结构、岸线变化速率、海陆格局和岸线开发利用强度等方面分析1988—2000年、2000—2015年和1988—2015年不同时段区域陆体以及槟城港等12个主要港口区域的岸线时空变化特征。结果如下:岸线结构变化显著,人工岸线长度和比例急剧增加,港口区域逐渐从单一类型主导向多元结构转变;除个别港口外,两侧岸线均呈向海扩张状态,南北两岸的岸线平均变化速率分别为0.91m/a和1.20m/a;因海峡南岸沼泽广布、地势低平及海平面上升等原因,其岸线稳定性差于海峡北岸;岸线开发利用强度持续增强,并表现出明显的海峡北岸强于南岸的空间差异,以及北岸第一阶段增长快于第二阶段,南岸第一阶段增长慢于第二阶段的时间差异。马六甲海峡的交通运输功能是两岸岸线变化的主要驱动因素。本研究对认识马六甲海峡两岸及港口区域岸线的时空变化和发展特征有重要意义,对海峡及港口岸线的综合管理具有一定借鉴作用。 相似文献
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The frequency of flooding is often presumed to increase with climate change because of projected increases in rainfall intensities. In this paper, using 50‐plus years of historical discharge and meteorological data from three watersheds in different physiographic regions of New York State, USA, we find that annual maximum stream discharges are associated with 20% or less of the annual maximum rainfall events. Instead of rainfall events, approximately 20% of annual maximum stream discharges are associated with annual maximum snowmelt events while 60% of annual maximum discharges are associated with moderate rainfall amounts and very wet soil conditions. To explore the potential for changes in future flood risk, we employed a compound frequency distribution that assumes annual maximum discharges can be modelled by combining the cumulative distribution functions of discharges resulting from annual maximum rainfall, annual maximum snowmelt, and occurrences of moderate rain on wet soils. Basing on a compound frequency distribution comprised of univariate general extreme value (GEV) and gamma distributions, we found that a hypothetical 20% increase in the magnitude of rainfall‐related stream discharge results in little change in 96th percentile annual maximum discharge. For the 99th percentile discharge, two waterbodies in our study had a 10% or less increase in annual maximum discharge when annual maximum rainfall‐related discharges increased 20% while the third waterbody had a 16% increase in annual maximum discharges. Additionally, in some cases, annual maximum discharges could be offset by a reduction in the discharge resulting from annual maximum snowmelt events. While only intended as a heuristic tool to explore the interaction among different flood‐causing mechanisms, use of a compound flood frequency distribution suggests a case can be made that not all waterbodies in humid, cold regions will see extensive changes in flooding due to increased rainfall intensities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
34.
The soil conservation service (now Natural Resources Conservation Service) Curve Number (SCS-CN), one of the most commonly used methods for surface runoff prediction. The runoff calculated by this method was very sensitive to CN values. In this study, CN values were calculated by both arithmetic mean (CN_C) and least square fit method (CN_F) using observed rainfall-runoff data from 43 sites in the Loess Plateau region, which are considerably different from the CN2 values obtained from the USDA-SCS handbook table (CN_T). The results showed that using CN_C instead of CN_T for each watershed produce little improvement, while replacing CN_T with CN_F improves the performance of the original SCS-CN method, but still performs poorly in most study sites. This is mainly due to the SCS-CN method using a constant CN value and discounting of the temporal variation in rainfall-runoff process. Therefore, three factors—soil moisture, rainfall depth and intensity—affecting the surface runoff variability are considered to reflect the variation of CN in each watershed, and a new CN value was developed. The reliability of the proposed method was tested with data from 38 watersheds, and then applied to the remaining five typical watersheds using the optimized parameters. The results indicated that the proposed method, which boosted the model efficiencies to 81.83% and 74.23% during calibration and validation cases, respectively, performed better than the original SCS-CN and the Shi and Wang (2020b) method, a modified SCS-CN method based on tabulated CN value. Thus, the proposed method incorporating the influence of the temporal variability of soil moisture, rainfall depth, and intensity factors suggests an accurate runoff prediction for general applications under different hydrological and climatic conditions on the Loess Plateau region. 相似文献
35.
Codie Wilson Stephanie K. Kampf Sandra Ryan Tim Covino Lee H. MacDonald Hunter Gleason 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13975
Wildfire increases the potential connectivity of runoff and sediment throughout watersheds due to greater bare soil, runoff and erosion as compared to pre-fire conditions. This research examines the connectivity of post-fire runoff and sediment from hillslopes (< 1.5 ha; n = 31) and catchments (< 1000 ha; n = 10) within two watersheds (< 1500 ha) burned by the 2012 High Park Fire in northcentral Colorado, USA. Our objectives were to: (1) identify sources and quantify magnitudes of post-fire runoff and erosion at nested hillslopes and watersheds for two rain storms with varied duration, intensity and antecedent precipitation; and (2) assess the factors affecting the magnitude and connectivity of runoff and sediment across spatial scales for these two rain storms. The two summer storms that are the focus of this research occurred during the third summer after burning. The first storm had low intensity rainfall over 11 hours (return interval <1–2 years), whereas the second event had high intensity rainfall over 1 hour (return interval <1–10 years). The lower intensity storm was preceded by high antecedent rainfall and led to low hillslope sediment yields and channel incision at most locations, whereas the high intensity storm led to infiltration-excess overland flow, high sediment yields, in-stream sediment deposition and channel substrate fining. For both storms, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios and area-normalised cross-sectional channel change increased with the percent of catchment that burned at high severity. For the high intensity storm, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios decreased with unconfined channel length (%). The findings quantify post-fire connectivity and sediment delivery from hillslopes and streams, and highlight how different types of storms can cause varying magnitues and spatial patterns of sediment transport and deposition from hillslopes through stream channel networks. 相似文献
36.
中国地质勘查周期及成因分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文开拓性地系统研究建国以来中国地质勘查周期,引入经济周期理论、工业化发展阶段理论、矿产品使用强度理论、政治决策因素、市场因素等对地质勘查周期进行了解释,试图理清多年来认识不清的问题。通过统计建国以来历年地质勘查投入、钻探工作量、见矿异常和发现矿产地等数据,划分了8次地质勘查工作周期。在对我国经济周期和财政周期研究的基础上,提出了地勘工作周期与经济和财政周期相对应的观点。此外,通过研究建国以来工业化进程和国家经济发展战略的选择,结合矿产品使用强度变化趋势,认为在重工业化发展阶段,矿产品使用强度处于高位,从而地勘投入处于高位;在农业、轻工业化发展阶段,地勘工作逐渐走弱。2013年后,随着我国进入工业化后期阶段,地勘工作处于新一轮弱势状态。地勘工作周期体现了长期国家发展战略主动选择、工业化进程与短期财政和经济波动双重叠加的特点,短期政策因素则常对地勘周期波动时有放大或熨平作用。 相似文献
37.
强震作用下,隧道地下结构损伤严重,其中洞口段更是抗震的薄弱环节,但其影响规律和特点目前尚缺乏系统的计算分析和研究。以强震区扯羊隧道为例,首先采用FLAC3D对双洞隧道洞口段地震响应进行分析,再用模型试验的方法进行洞口段模型试验,测量其地震响应应变规律,观测其震害发展情况,并与数值分析结果相互验证。结果表明:地震作用下,隧道仰拱横向位移较大;随着隧道埋深增加,内力逐步增加,其中墙角部位内力较大;洞口处隧道围岩在强震作用下会产生贯通性裂缝,影响隧道洞口稳定;地震作用下的明洞与暗洞交接处内力较大;地震作用下的双洞隧道之间存在较强的动力相互作用。 相似文献
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